The Economic Balance Sheet An economic balance sheet is a snapshot in time of an investor’s assets and liabilities. But rather than just capturing physical and/or financial assets, as does the traditional balance sheet, the economic balance sheet also…

To inform the asset allocation process and adequately set client expectations, analysts must be able to create realistic and defensible forecasts for all asset classes, including fixed income. The main ways to approach forecasting fixed-income returns include: Discounted cash flow:…

Monetary Policy To smooth out extreme inflation or deflation, central banks act as mediators. It is generally accepted that expansionary policies are less effective than those that are restrictive. In other words, it’s easier for governmental authorities to cool down…

The business cycle refers to variations of economic productivity–often measured in terms of GDP–around its long-term trend rate. It is this long-term trend rate that serves as an anchor for forecasting business environments. This is because the economy cannot sustainably…

Inappropriate capital market expectations could be devastating to portfolio performance. Several pitfalls could lead to false expectations and a less-than-optimal asset allocation. Regardless, the analyst is tasked with following a disciplined process and understanding potential challenges in developing capital market…

Mnemonic Devices for Easy Recall Cognitive: The cognitive biases can be remembered with the following mnemonic device: Con-Con-Con-Rep-Hind + FAMA (think Fama and French). Emotional: The emotional biases can be remembered with the following mnemonic device: LESSOR (the owner of…