Uses of Short-term Shifts in Asset Allocation

Strategic asset allocation (SAA) is the predetermined distribution of assets in a portfolio based on long-term goals and is established in an investment policy statement (IPS). On the other hand, tactical asset allocation (TAA) involves making short-term adjustments to the SAA, typically for capitalizing on specific market opportunities. These adjustments are temporary and usually last for up to one year.

Market Opportunities

Tactical asset allocation (TAA) primarily aims to enhance risk-adjusted returns. Competent portfolio managers utilize TAA strategies to mitigate risk during market volatility or exploit market anomalies to achieve additional returns. The following examples of TAA approaches may be familiar to level III candidates who have already been exposed to different investment styles.

(Discretionary) Qualitative Approach

This approach relies on the manager’s judgment and analysis. Macroeconomic variables such as forecasted GDP, inflation, and risk premiums are considered to identify potential short-term mispricing of securities or asset classes. For instance, if a manager anticipates a larger-than-expected decrease in inflation in the coming year, they may increase the portfolio’s allocation to fixed income. The investment policy statement (IPS) sets predefined ranges or limits on the extent of asset class shifts allowed for TAA. For example, the manager might have the flexibility to deviate up to 15% from the strategic asset allocation (SAA) to capitalize on perceived opportunities. 

Market sentiment is another form of discretionary TAA in which a manager attempts to time the market by following a trend.

• Short interest: This refers to the number of investors who have taken short positions on a particular security. High or increasing short interest is generally seen as a bearish signal.
• Open options interest: This metric calculates the number of open options positions initiated by investors. These positions represent options contracts not closed through an offsetting trade or exercise/assignment. An accumulation of call options indicates a bullish sentiment, while a buildup of put options suggests a bearish sentiment.
• Volatility indexes: These indexes measure the level of fear or market uncertainty. A well-known example is the CBOE’s VIX. Higher readings on volatility indexes typically indicate investor pessimism.
• Index moving averages: This technique involves tracking the average values of indexes over a specific period, such as 200 days. It is considered a bullish sign when shorter-term moving averages surpass longer-term moving averages. Conversely, if short-term moving averages decline, it is interpreted as a bearish signal.

(Systematic) Quantitative Approach

In contrast to the qualitative approaches discussed earlier, quantitative approaches typically rely on employing models to make investment decisions. These models generate binary recommendations: either to invest or not to invest based on predefined criteria.

• Value approach: The value approach focuses on capturing return premiums by targeting undervalued stocks. It involves conducting fundamental analysis to identify mispriced stocks and taking long positions in those undervalued while potentially shorting overvalued stocks.
• Growth/momentum approach: This strategy assumes that trends continue over time. It involves identifying the strength and direction of a security’s movement and making investments based on the expectation that the trend will continue. Fundamentals are not considered in this approach.

TAA Performance Evaluation

Methods for evaluating the success of a tactical asset allocation (TAA) decision may include:

• Comparing the Sharpe Ratio of the strategic asset allocation (SAA) and the TAA component of the portfolio.
• Utilizing the information ratio or t-stat ratio to compare the performance of the TAA portion relative to the SAA portion.
• Analyzing the realized risk and return of the TAA portfolio and comparing it to portfolios located on the efficient frontier.
• Conducting attribution analysis on the excess return generated by the TAA strategy.

Question

Which of the following is least likely a qualitative approach to TAA?

1. Following open interest.
2. Using volatility indexes.
3. Adopting a value bias.

Solution

The correct answer is C.

A value-based decision involves buying stocks in a specific sector when their market price is lower than the value indicated by the advisor’s model. Adopting a value bias is the least likely to be considered a qualitative approach to TAA. A value bias entails quantitatively analyzing fundamental factors and valuation metrics to identify undervalued stocks or assets. It focuses on objective criteria rather than subjective or qualitative factors. Therefore, option C is not a qualitative approach to TAA.

A and B are incorrect: Qualitative approaches to TAA include following open interest and using volatility indexes. Unlike value tilt, which allows for clear buy and sell decisions based on objective criteria, these qualitative approaches rely more on subjective analysis. They may not provide definitive guidelines for trading actions.

Asset Allocation: Learning Module 5: Asset Allocation with Real-World Constraints; Los 5(d) Discuss the use of short-term shifts in asset allocation