Portfolio Liquidity Risk Management

Liquidity risk involves a cost associated with locking up investor capital for an uncertain duration. Large institutional investors must plan their portfolio's liquidity to maximize fund efficiency. For example, an endowment funding college student aid may need to distribute funds at specific enrollment dates. Insufficient liquidity can jeopardize the endowment's mission.

Rapid asset sales often lead to fire-sale prices, particularly during financial crises like 2008. Institutions may face a steep drop in portfolio value, reduced donations, and the need to sell assets at deep discounts to meet distribution needs. Maintaining a cash cushion helps but sacrifices portfolio returns. Liquidity budgeting and planning are key.

Institutional investors have tools to manage liquidity risk, including:

• Liquidity profiling and time-to-cash tables.
• Rebalancing and commitment strategies.
• Stress testing analyses.
• Derivatives.

These tools help institutions navigate liquidity challenges, ensuring they can meet their financial obligations while striving to achieve their investment goals.

Liquidity Profiling and Time to Cash

The evaluation of liquidity requirements begins by identifying expected cash inflows and outflows over a specific investment horizon. For institutions like endowments, outflows encompass university distributions and capital calls for illiquid investments. After pinpointing these cash sources and uses, the institutional investor determines the required liquidity and the preferred maturity profile. This process includes establishing a liquidity classification schedule and defining an overall liquidity budget.

• A liquidity classification schedule segregates the portfolio into segments of assets by liquidity. More liquid assets go together, and less liquid assets go together. Liquidity in this case is likely quantified by the amount of time under normal business conditions it would take to turn the assets into cash.
• A liquidity budget then assigns acceptable portfolio weights to each segment.

$$ \begin{array}{c|c|c}
\textbf{Time to Cash} & \textbf{Liquidity Classification} & \textbf{Liquidity} & \bf{\text{Budget } (\%)} \\ \hline
{\lt 1 \text{ Week} } & \text{Highly Liquid} & \text{At Least} & 15\% \\ \hline
{\lt 1 \text{ Quarter}} & \text{Liquid} & \text{At Least} & 5\% \\ \hline
{\lt 1 \text{ Year} } & \text{Semi-Liquid} & \text{At Least} & 40\% \\ \hline
{\gt 1 \text{ Year}} & \text{Illiquid} & \text{Up to} & 40\%
\end{array} $$

When assessing the liquidity of the various assets in the portfolio, it is important to keep in mind the contractual terms of any alternative investments, which often have liquidity restrictions such as lock-up periods, gates, etc. Because the portfolio must meet these requirements even under market turmoil, stress-testing must be done before the liquidity budget can be set up (more on this later).

In addition to contractual terms, investment vehicle is another important consideration. The same asset may be readily turned into cash in a taxable account or SMA, but may not be available without additional losses in a tax-advantaged or commingled account.

Finally, asset class alone is generally not enough to create a thorough analysis, although it is a good starting point. For example, public equities can vary greatly in their liquidity. For this reason, a bottom-up analysis is necessary.

Sample Profile

A simplified liquidity profile follows. Real world profiles and profiles on the exam may be more granular, but the following is sufficient to learn the mechanics.

$$ \small{\begin{array}{c|c|c|ccc}
& & & \textbf{Liquidity} & \textbf{Rating} & \\ \hline
\textbf{Asset class} & \textbf{Allocation} & \textbf{Vehicle} & \textbf{High} & \textbf{Mid} & \textbf{Low} \\ \hline
\textbf{Cash} & 5\% & \text{SMA} & 100\% & 0\% & 0\% \\ \hline
\textbf{Fixed Income} & 15\% & \text{SMA} & 75\% & 25\% & 0\% \\ \hline
\textbf{Equities} & 40\% & \text{SMA} & 40\% & 40\% & 20\% \\ \hline
\textbf{Alternatives} & 40\% & \text{Commingled} & 0\% & 20\% & 80\% \\ \hline
& 100\% & \textbf{WA Portfolio} & \bf{32.25\%} & \bf{27.75\%} & \bf{40.00\%}
\end{array}} $$

In the example provided, each asset class is represented as a single line item. A more detailed schedule might further break down equities, considering characteristics like international vs. domestic or large-cap vs. small-cap.

Cash holds a 5% allocation in the portfolio in this example. Analysts assign a ‘rating,’ as shown in the liquidity rating section on the right side of the table. In this case, cash within an SMA is considered fully liquid, earning a score of 100%. Each asset class is treated equally, and the ratings within an asset class should total 100%.

At the bottom, a weighted average rating is calculated for the entire portfolio. It's a weighted average of the allocation to each asset class and its rating. In this example, the portfolio is invested in 32.25% highly liquid securities and 40% low liquidity securities. Whether this allocation is acceptable depends on the board of directors or investment committee's decision.

Rebalancing Commitments

A portfolio that is allowed to drift around with market conditions does not represent intelligent planning. Portfolio managers must have in place rebalancing mechanisms to control not only the asset allocation of the portfolio as desired but also to ensure that sufficient liquidity is in place. Rebalancing mechanisms include the following:

• Systematic rebalancing policies: For these cases, predefined tolerance bands for asset class weights are used. Each investment category's underlying volatility should be taken into consideration when determining the size or width of the bands in order to minimize transaction costs. It follows that rebalancing bands should be wider for more volatile investment categories. Investor risk tolerance, transaction costs, and asset class correlations may all influence the size of the band selected.
• Automatic adjustment mechanisms: Automated adjustments may use algorithms or other trading programs to keep specific metrics within a range. For example, if portfolio equity beta becomes too high, the mechanism will bring it back down to its acceptable level. This could also be true of liquidity profiles for such a program that could incorporate these into its trading.

Stress Testing

Having a liquidity framework ensures that cash flow needs will be met without undue hardship. Stress testing involves computer models to examine how the portfolio and the liabilities may behave under varying market conditions.

With respect to assets, stress testing can test:

• Distributional assumptions regarding prices (e.g., volatility, return).
• Correlations across assets.
• Liquidity characteristics.

Also, shocks to the liability side can be tested in addition or side by side with asset assumptions. An example could be a foundation that has high distribution needs in one year. Any situation in which liabilities may increase suddenly should be incorporated. The design of the stress tests can be based on historical events (e.g., a financial crisis), statistical models (e.g., extreme value theory), and/or scenario analysis (e.g., analyzing the potential impact of a hypothetical scenario with respect to a set of variables on the overall portfolio).

Derivatives

Derivatives can be used to manage cash outflow needs and dynamic risk exposures. The fact that derivatives have leverage, allowing investors to control large positions with little cash outlay, makes them desirable tools for rebalancing. A future overlay program allows an institutional investor to rebalance exposures to public asset classes while leaving allocations to external active managers unchanged. Derivatives can also be used to modify a portfolio's liquidity profile via—for example, using futures contracts (long futures position) to gain economic exposure to US equities and then deploying the cash that is not required for posting margin into other investments.

Question

Which of the following processes works by segregating a portfolio into segments of assets by liquidity?

1. Liquidity budget.
2. Stress-testing.
3. Liquidity classification schedule.

Solution

The correct answer is C.

A liquidity classification schedule is a process that works by segregating a portfolio into segments of assets based on their liquidity. This schedule categorizes assets into different groups, typically based on how quickly they can be converted into cash without significant loss in value. This helps in managing and monitoring liquidity risk within a portfolio.

A is incorrect. A liquidity budget is a financial plan that estimates future cash flows and assesses how a portfolio or an organization's liquidity needs align with those cash flows. It helps ensure that there is enough liquidity to meet financial obligations but doesn't specifically involve the segmentation of assets based on liquidity.

B is incorrect. Stress-testing is a risk management technique used to assess how a portfolio or financial system would perform under extreme or adverse conditions. While stress-testing may consider the liquidity of assets, it doesn't inherently involve segregating assets based on their liquidity.

Portfolio Management Pathway Volume 2: Learning Module 7: Case Study in Portfolio Management: Institutional; Los 7(a) Discuss tools for managing portfolio liquidity risk