Business Cycle and Its Phases

Business Cycle and Its Phases

A business or economic cycle is defined as the persistent fluctuation in the gross domestic product of a given economy within a specified period. A business cycle can be described by periods of expansion and recessions.

During a recession, the economy contracts when measured by industrial production decrement, personal incomes, employment, and sales. Conversely, during an expansionary period, there is a significant growth in economic output. Business cycles are, therefore, measured by analyzing the fluctuations of the gross domestic product of an economy. Any given business cycle generally lasts between 1 to 12 years.

Phases of the Business Cycle

1. Expansion

The growth of global economic activity defines expansion phases. Its features include economic growth, upward pressure on prices, and an increase in employment.

On a graph, the expansion comes after the trough, while contraction emerges after the peak and before the trough. During periods of expansion, a significant amount of the labor force is absorbed by the economic activities in the economy. This causes a reduction in the unemployment rate.

2. Peak

Peaks represent the highest value reached by some quantity in a certain period of time. For example, a peak is attained when the economy produces the highest output, inflation pressures prices to rise, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest.

3. Contraction

Contractions happen when there’s negative economic growth or an economic decline. Prices decline, and the unemployment rate increases.

4. Trough

The trough is defined as the lowest point of business cycles. Here, the economy has hit rock bottom, out of which the next expansion phase will emerge. A good example of this is the 2008 financial crisis, where the unemployment rate was fairly high, and housing prices were at their lowest levels ever seen in years.

Question

Which of the following is most likely an indicator of an economy that is undergoing a recession?

  1. When the central bank starts buying back treasury securities.
  2. When the real GDP has two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
  3. When there is a huge decline of economic activities in the business sector.

Solution

The correct answer is C.

GDP measures the size of an economy. The most common technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by the GDP.

Shop CFA® Exam Prep

Offered by AnalystPrep

Featured Shop FRM® Exam Prep Learn with Us

    Subscribe to our newsletter and keep up with the latest and greatest tips for success
    Shop Actuarial Exams Prep Shop Graduate Admission Exam Prep


    Sergio Torrico
    Sergio Torrico
    2021-07-23
    Excelente para el FRM 2 Escribo esta revisión en español para los hispanohablantes, soy de Bolivia, y utilicé AnalystPrep para dudas y consultas sobre mi preparación para el FRM nivel 2 (lo tomé una sola vez y aprobé muy bien), siempre tuve un soporte claro, directo y rápido, el material sale rápido cuando hay cambios en el temario de GARP, y los ejercicios y exámenes son muy útiles para practicar.
    diana
    diana
    2021-07-17
    So helpful. I have been using the videos to prepare for the CFA Level II exam. The videos signpost the reading contents, explain the concepts and provide additional context for specific concepts. The fun light-hearted analogies are also a welcome break to some very dry content. I usually watch the videos before going into more in-depth reading and they are a good way to avoid being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of content when you look at the readings.
    Kriti Dhawan
    Kriti Dhawan
    2021-07-16
    A great curriculum provider. James sir explains the concept so well that rather than memorising it, you tend to intuitively understand and absorb them. Thank you ! Grateful I saw this at the right time for my CFA prep.
    nikhil kumar
    nikhil kumar
    2021-06-28
    Very well explained and gives a great insight about topics in a very short time. Glad to have found Professor Forjan's lectures.
    Marwan
    Marwan
    2021-06-22
    Great support throughout the course by the team, did not feel neglected
    Benjamin anonymous
    Benjamin anonymous
    2021-05-10
    I loved using AnalystPrep for FRM. QBank is huge, videos are great. Would recommend to a friend
    Daniel Glyn
    Daniel Glyn
    2021-03-24
    I have finished my FRM1 thanks to AnalystPrep. And now using AnalystPrep for my FRM2 preparation. Professor Forjan is brilliant. He gives such good explanations and analogies. And more than anything makes learning fun. A big thank you to Analystprep and Professor Forjan. 5 stars all the way!
    michael walshe
    michael walshe
    2021-03-18
    Professor James' videos are excellent for understanding the underlying theories behind financial engineering / financial analysis. The AnalystPrep videos were better than any of the others that I searched through on YouTube for providing a clear explanation of some concepts, such as Portfolio theory, CAPM, and Arbitrage Pricing theory. Watching these cleared up many of the unclarities I had in my head. Highly recommended.