{"id":20106,"date":"2021-08-21T11:05:15","date_gmt":"2021-08-21T11:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analystprep.com\/study-notes\/?p=20106"},"modified":"2026-06-11T12:07:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T12:07:01","slug":"using-p-es-to-obtain-terminal-value-in-multistage-dividend-discount-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analystprep.com\/study-notes\/cfa-level-2\/using-p-es-to-obtain-terminal-value-in-multistage-dividend-discount-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Using P\/Es to Obtain Terminal Value in Multistage Dividend Discount Models"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">\r\n{\r\n  \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\r\n  \"@type\": \"QAPage\",\r\n  \"mainEntity\": {\r\n    \"@type\": \"Question\",\r\n    \"name\": \"What is the terminal value given the required return, EPS forecast, ROE, and payout ratio?\",\r\n    \"text\": \"Consider the following information:\\n\\nRequired rate of return: 14%\\nEPS forecast for year six: 2.5\\nROE: 7%\\nDividend payout ratio: 30%\\n\\nThe terminal value in year 5 is closest to:\\n\\nA. 75\\nB. 9\\nC. 24\",\r\n    \"answerCount\": 1,\r\n    \"acceptedAnswer\": {\r\n      \"@type\": \"Answer\",\r\n      \"text\": \"The correct answer is C. First compute the retention ratio: 1 \u2212 0.30 = 0.70. The sustainable growth rate is g = 0.70 \u00d7 0.07 = 4.9%. The expected dividend in year 6 is D6 = 2.5 \u00d7 0.30 = 0.75. Using the Gordon Growth Model, the terminal value at year 5 is V5 = D6 \/ (r \u2212 g) = 0.75 \/ (0.14 \u2212 0.049) = 8.24, which corresponds most closely to option C.\"\r\n    }\r\n  }\r\n}\r\n<\/script><\/p>\r\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0kMmbenpFuo\" width=\"611\" height=\"343\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When estimating the terminal value, analysts use price multiples such as P\/Es and P\/Bs to estimate terminal values. There are two significant approaches to computing terminal values based on multiples:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3>I. Terminal Price Multiples based on Fundamentals<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The terminal value is computed as the product of the justified multiple and the estimate of earnings.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$$\\begin{align*}\\text{Terminal value}_{\\text{n}}&amp;=\\text{Justified leading P\u2044E}\\times \\text{Forecasted earnings}_{(\\text{n}+1)}\\\\ \\text{Terminal value}_{\\text{n}}&amp;=\\text{Justified trailing P\u2044E}\\times \\text{Forecasted earnings}_ {(\\text{n})}\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div style=\"text-align: center; margin: 30px 0;\"><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #2f6fdf; color: #ffffff; padding: 15px 40px; border-radius: 30px; text-decoration: none; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 400;\" href=\"https:\/\/analystprep.com\/free-trial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Master terminal value calculations with our Free Trial <\/a><\/div>\r\n<h3>ii. Terminal Price Multiples based on Comparables<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The terminal value is computed as the product of the benchmark multiple and the estimate of earnings.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$$\\begin{align*}\\text{Terminal value}_{\\text{n}}&amp;=\\text{Benchmark leading P\u2044E}\\times \\text{Forecasted earnings}_{(\\text{n}+1)}\\\\ \\text{Benchmark value}_{\\text{n}}&amp;=\\text{Justified leading P\u2044E}\\times \\text{Forecasted earnings}_ {(\\text{n})}\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The benchmark value could be the:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n\t<li>Median industry P\/E.<\/li>\r\n\t<li>Average industry P\/E.<\/li>\r\n\t<li>Average of own past P\/E.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An advantage of the price multiples approach is that it is grounded in market data, unlike the Gordon growth model that is based on multiple estimates and is very sensitive to changes in these estimates.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A disadvantage is that if the benchmark value is mispriced, the estimate of the terminal value will also reflect this mispricing.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example: Estimating Terminal Value<\/h4>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider the following information:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$$\\small{\\begin{array}{l|l}\\textbf{Values for subject firm} &amp; \\\\ \\hline\\text{Required rate of return} &amp; 10\\% \\\\ \\hline\\text{EPS forecast in year five} &amp; 1.4\\\\ \\end{array}}$$<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$$\\small{\\begin{array}{l|l}\\textbf{Values for peer group} &amp; \\\\ \\hline \\text{Mean dividend payout ratio} &amp; 0.35 \\\\ \\hline \\text{Mean ROE} &amp; 6\\% \\\\ \\hline \\text{Median P\/E} &amp; 8\\\\ \\end{array}}$$<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Using P\/Es to determine terminal value using the Gordon Growth model:<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{D}_5&amp;= \\text{EPS}_5\\times\\text{Dividend payout ratio}\\\\&amp;=1.4 \\times0.35\\\\&amp;=0.49\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{Retention ratio}&amp;=1-\\text{Dividend payout ratio}\\\\&amp;=1-0.35\\\\&amp;=0.65\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{g}&amp;=\\text{Retention ratio} \\times\\text{ROE}\\\\&amp;=0.65 \u00d76\\%\\\\&amp;=3.9\\%\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{V}_5&amp;=\\frac{\\text{D}_5(1+\\text{g})}{\\text{r}-\\text{g}}\\\\&amp;=\\frac{0.49(1.039)}{0.10-0.039}\\\\&amp;=8.35\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<p>Using P\/Es to determine terminal value using comparables:<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{V}_5&amp;= \\text{P\u2044E}\\times\\text{EPS}_5\\\\&amp;=8\u00d71.4\\\\&amp;=11.20\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<blockquote>\r\n<h2>Question<\/h2>\r\n<p>Consider the following information:<\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\small{\\begin{array}{l|l}\\textbf{The required rate of return} &amp; 14\\% \\\\ \\hline\\text{EPS forecast for year six} &amp; 2.5 \\\\ \\hline\\text{ROE} &amp; 7\\% \\\\ \\hline\\text{Dividend payout ratio} &amp; 30\\%\\\\ \\end{array}}$$<\/p>\r\n<p>The terminal value in year value is <em>closest to:<\/em><\/p>\r\n<ol style=\"list-style-type: upper-alpha;\">\r\n\t<li>75.<\/li>\r\n\t<li>9.<\/li>\r\n\t<li>24.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<h3>Solution<\/h3>\r\n<p><strong>The correct answer is C.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>$$\\begin{align*}\\text{g}&amp;=\\text{Retention ratio}\\times\\text{ROE}\\\\ \\\\ \\text{Retention ratio}&amp;=1-\\text{Dividend payout ratio}\\\\ &amp;=1-0.30=0.70\\\\ \\\\ \\text{g}&amp;=0.70\\times0.07\\\\&amp;=4.9\\%\\\\ \\\\ \\text{D}_6&amp;= 2.5 \\times0.30\\\\&amp;=0.75\\\\ \\\\ \\text{V}_5&amp;=\\frac{0.75}{0.14-0.049}\\\\&amp;=8.24\\end{align*}$$<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n<p>Reading 25: Market-Based Valuation: Price and Enterprise Value Multiples<\/p>\r\n<p><em>LOS 25 (l) Calculate and explain the use of price multiples in determining terminal value in a multistage discounted cash flow (DCF) model.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n<div style=\"text-align: center; margin: 50px auto 30px auto; max-width: 850px;\"><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #2f6fdf; color: #ffffff; padding: 14px 36px; border-radius: 30px; text-decoration: none; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600;\" href=\"https:\/\/analystprep.com\/free-trial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Start Free Trial \u2192 <\/a>\r\n<p style=\"margin-top: 18px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; color: #444; max-width: 750px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;\">Practice terminal value estimation, justified P\/E multiples, dividend discount models, and equity valuation techniques with CFA Level II study notes, practice questions, video lessons, and mock exams.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff\ufeff When estimating the terminal value, analysts use price multiples such as P\/Es and P\/Bs to estimate terminal values. There are two significant approaches to computing terminal values based on multiples: I. Terminal Price Multiples based on Fundamentals The terminal&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102,401],"tags":[216,402,474,486],"class_list":["post-20106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cfa-level-2","category-equity-valuation","tag-cfa-level-2","tag-equity-valuation","tag-reading-29-market-based-valuation","tag-using-p-es-to-obtain-terminal-value","blog-post","no-post-thumbnail","animate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Using P\/E Multiples for Terminal Value<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn how analysts use P\/E multiples to estimate terminal value in multistage dividend discount models and equity valuation.\" \/>\n<meta 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