A random variable \(Y\) is lognormally distributed if its natural logarithm, In \(Y\), is normally distributed. The opposite is true. If ln \(Y\) is normally distributed, then \(Y\) is lognormally distributed. The lognormal distribution is positively skewed, meaning it’s skewed…

Investors make investment decisions based on their experience and expertise. Their decisions may change in the wake of new knowledge and observations. Bayes’ formula allows us to update our decisions as we receive new information. In other words, it calculates…

A tree diagram is a visual representation of all possible future outcomes and the associated probabilities of a random variable. Tree diagrams are handy when we have several possible outcomes. They facilitate the recording of all the possibilities in a…

Expected Value Expected value is an essential quantitative concept investors use to estimate investment returns and analyze any factor that may impact their financial position. Mathematically, the expected value is the probability-weighted average of the possible outcomes of the random…

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) evaluates investment options based on mean return and return variance. This approach is applicable when investors are risk-averse, meaning they seek to maximize their expected satisfaction or utility from their investments. Mean-return analysis holds under two…

Historical covariance or other techniques, such as market model regression with historical return data, can help us forecast return covariance and correlation. We use the joint probability function of the random variables for this estimation. The probability that values of…

A portfolio is a collection of investments a company, mutual fund, or individual investor holds. It consists of assets such as stocks, bonds, or cash equivalents. Financial professionals usually manage a portfolio. Portfolio Expected Return To calculate the portfolio’s expected…

A timeline is a physical illustration of the amounts and timing of cashflows associated with an investment project. For cashflows that are regular and of equal amounts, the standard annuity formula or the financial calculator can be used. However, a…

Implied Return for Fixed-Income Instruments The growth rate is the rate at which the market expects an asset to grow. On the other hand, implied return reflects a return based on the current price and future security cash flows. Consider…

The time value of money (TVM) is a fundamental financial concept. It emphasizes that a sum of money is worth more in the present than in the future. There are three key reasons supporting this principle: The concept of opportunity…